What do you think the future holds for consumers?

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In 2030, Amazon will rule the world.

I used to think Amazon was great, but as more and more High Street and local shops close as they can’t compete with the internet, I now see Amazon as a destructive force of the future.

You can buy almost anything from Amazon. They have branched out into music,TV, cloud services, the food market, they have recently bought a delivery company, they are soon going to bypass the need for credit cards or PayPal, taking money directly from customers bank accounts.

Back in January, it was reported that Amazon had 45000 robots in its warehouses. It is trialing drones for deliveries, it will need less and less people.

As Amazon monopolises markets undercutting the competition, businesses close and automation takes over, how long is this sustainable? How are people going to earn money when everything comes from China on the cheap?

Governments need to make sure competition can thrive so we have choice and most importantly employment.

We live in very exciting times, but it concerns me that our lives are being increasingly driven by consumerism. Look at the amount that is spent at a family Christmas or wedding these days.

As mentioned in the introduction, we are increasingly being monitored and as a friend who works in the industry has told me, information is worth a lot of money to business.

It greatly concerns me that government seems to be increasingly manipulated by now far beyond political parties receiving money from business and political levies. We need governments to be as far as possible independent of influence by anyone other than the citizens of the country.

Caroline mentions the importance of product and food safety in the future. I recently learned that business is going to be given more responsibility for policing standards. In my view, that’s a recipe for declining standards.

We have benefited greatly from the advances in electronics, software and communication, though there are some downsides. It would be interesting to look into a crystal ball and see whether the smart revolution will be seen as positive or negative in fifty years from now.

Would anyone else like to join me in boycotting Amazon? I think that Alfa’s prediction might be right.

It is interesting to note your figures on housing and what Which? has done, or not done over the last two decades to aid the building of decent new homes.

I refer of course to the building industry being predominantly a few very large builders who dominate the trade and have bought land which they release as and when they wish to build houses.

A charity that is involved in arranging mortgages surely should have had something to say about the regrettable practices of the freehold house being subject to onerous clauses. The quality of building in many cases has been atrocious.

So what of the future if charities become involved commercially in the very areas they ought to be fighting to right wrongs?

The article actually provides a link to where you may download the “future scoping” report. It is interesting and I applaud forward thinking however it does appear to be majorly flawed in not considering any answers to the de-skilling and unemployment to be brought about by giant corporations operating from giant robot run warehouses.

The 15Mb paper which refers to its partner or facilitator Forum for the Future
“We are an international non-profit working with business, government and civil society to solve complex sustainability challenges” Note the order.
which.co.uk/policy/consumers/1911/the-changing-consumer-world

Despite being 15Mb it is only 10,000 plus words so not a taxing read. It is hard to take seriously when it avoids the difficult problems like unemployment, immigration, lack of housing, and broken governments.

Of course it does provide potential solutions to neatly packaged foreseen problems but one almost feels it has been here are some answers let us construct the scenario they answer. However it is worth reading for encouraging gems like:

” Signs of this future today
By 2021 The Resolution Foundation projects that we will see the biggest rise in inequality since the late 1980s, with falling living standards for almost the entire bottom half of the working-age income distribution.

Within a decade it estimates that 9 out of 10 Britons under 35 with modest incomes will be frozen out of home ownership.

The Centre for Cities found that the gap between economies in northern and southern English cities dramatically widened in 10 years. For every 12 jobs created since 2004 in southern cities, only one was created in cities elsewhere. ”

Perhaps moving charity HQ’s to the north will solve part of this problem and give staffers a better life.

And in case you wondered heavily taxing large warehouse, making them pay the VAT on purchases to recover the £1.5bn that is currently not being collected, make deliveries more expensive, and tax free the High ST. shops who employ more workers per square ft.

It’s hard to divert ones attention away from Brexit, but I don’t envisage much future progress being made until it is well and truly behind us. Duncan makes reference to global markets and American/Chinese dominance, which begs the question, what does the future hold for the UK if or when we are excluded from the third most influential and profitable global market without a reasonable deal?

Its encouraging to see continuous research into thermal clothing which I predict we will all be wearing more of to keep warm in the future and it will become more fashionable. Scientists are already exploring a host of different materials that will appeal to younger as well as older members of society as energy becomes more expensive and scarce.

It is becoming increasingly worrying to witness the increase in the amount traffic and pollution on our roads. The future must lie in improving the rail and freight systems in order to reduce the number of lorries as well as private cars, but first the government need to impose more regulation on unions to prevent the continuous disruption caused by walk outs and strikes that stop people getting to their place of work.

I have already posted ways in which to improve the housing market which is a complete shambles at the moment, but with interest rates predicted to increase any time at all, this is bound to make buying more difficult for younger people to afford to get onto the housing ladder and also affect those on variable mortgages. Private landlords need to be better regulated with more people being forced to rent instead of buy and for those whose homes will be repossessed.

However, any future change for the better is dependent upon the time it takes to settle Brexit negotiations. Until then I think we will be facing uncertain and hard times and concessions will inevitably follow.

For the foreseeable future, there will always be a need for actual products across the whole spectrum of life. In ‘advanced’ countries, this will mean demand for household goods, cars, groceries and items that are used within society, bought by society for public use. Thus there will be a physical need to produce these items and actually transport them from manufacture to the final purchaser. There are only a few ways of doing this, and no amount of new digitisation and software will alter the need to get the product from A to B. There might be an improvement on the supply and demand side, so that goods are produced as required rather than stockpiled for distribution. This would have to mean better communication between the various strands involved and advances in the flow chain from raw material to consumer delivery.

I would agree that the digital world is currently in crisis because security has not kept up with ease of use. I would hope that the future balance between the two will improve. Looking at the digital world, it is hard to see what else needs to be invented. Communication is almost instant by a wide variety of methods, both for individuals and countries. Perhaps these can be refined further to make it easier to communicate. So, instead of having a physical phone and pushing buttons on keyboards, or using word processors, there will be instant speech to text which improves on the inaccurate systems we have at present. Refining this too far could lead to a risk of things being said and transmitted without thought. This is easy enough now! Since digital can not transport actual things, its use must be a message based and information gathering medium. Maybe in future it could send instructions to robotic factories, but it is incapable of actually doing the work. I am quite certain that digital information gathering, both innocent and clandestine, will be refined and developed in future. In fact the digital medium is now able to disrupt the world and this will only get better/worse.

Savings depends on who and where you are. In ‘developed’ countries it is a huge problem since income is generally not much more than the demands made upon it. Thus there will be an increase in pension poverty, house buying will be a luxury for more and more and the demands on the state will grow as it looks at a population in need and unable to afford the essentials required for a civilised lifestyle. When society breaks down in this way there is civil unrest. Adding to that, is the limited financial budget that the country can afford. Like all of us, there will be a time when borrowing becomes impossible. We shall either adjust our lifestyle in the future or suffer. Such changes will be unpopular and may impinge on what we can do in future. For the first time in history, what our predecessors did will be the envy of those that are alive at that time.

Housing will continue to be a problem. History has shown that prices rise and are usually at the top of what people can afford. Those with housing assets are protected, those without get increasingly left behind. This in-balance will get worse and I don’t see the future as much of an improvement, despite attempts to build more houses. More social unrest is created in this area.

Likewise, I am pessimistic about travel and transport. With an ever increasing travel need and a finite transport system, things can only get worse. Electric transport may become compulsory and this will alter the way we live and travel. There will be a problem getting goods from place to place and the compromises necessary to survive will make travel more of an expensive luxury for most of us. Road and rail rationing might become the norm and costs will spiral, putting further strain on incomes.

The consumer landscape will definitely change. I hope that product safety will improve and we shall find better ways to grow and cook food, and better ways to create less waste and general effluent. One thing that might change a great deal, is the way developing countries impinge upon the world, making greater demand on resources and exercising more influence on the world stage. All this, of course, supposes that no one presses the wrong button in rage. This would alter everything so dramatically that no future prediction is possible and it’s back to the cave and the spear.

Very true Wavechange but in those days there was no contraceptive pill and women had many more kids who had to share and pass on their treasured toys to their siblings who invariably finished up breaking them! In my local village store last week I noticed they are now selling pregnancy test kits along with the paracetamol and toothpaste!

Consumerism emanated originally from a need to keep up with the Jones’s, otherwise other kids felt deprived if friends were bestowed with the next smart toy and not they, so parents were made to suffer until they produced the same as little Johnny next door (or even better) and peace reigned for a week or two until the novelty wore off and the pattern is repeated. Credit cards then came into being making purchases easier and advertisers wasted no time in jumping on the opportunist bandwagon by entering the fray and those same kids grew up into adults with exactly the same wants instead of needs.

Could this be the reason why 30pc of people today only have £1 or less in a savings account or ISA and young people are finding it so difficult to raise a deposit to buy their own place? Those inherited behavioural patterns can be extremely hard to break (as previously discussed elsewhere).

Beryl, Re: Housing: While you appear to be well informed on many issues, your understanding of the rental market, is simplistic. The market you refer to is hardly ‘regulated’ at all – sorry to say. Once a 2 times, home-owner, I was plunged into the rental market after divorce 15yrs ago, and I wouldn’t wish the experience on anyone! I have had satisfactory, but more often, poor Landlords over the years, and NEVER SECURITY: Short-term tenancies: 6 or 12 months at a time – how would you deal with this? Run your life: your job, your children at school, your family and friends. Until we deal with this issue alone, Beryl, how do you propose society ‘gets on with it?’ Lack of security is an invisible, underlying issue for most of our society, but especially our young: job security – GONE. Housing security – GONE. Safety net of Benefits – if one is unfortunate enough to become unemployed/ill – GONE – I speak from experience on all counts. Instability is fundamental to many of societie’s ills . . . poor mental and physical health caused – by our working and social environment. So please, Beryl, unless you have direct experience of the rental market yourself – don’t presume to understand it. I am 58, and a struggling retired Teacher: I lost my position due to ill health. Having worked full time, and paid taxes for over 40yrs, I found the ‘Benefits’ system – that I thought to be a ‘safety net’ to be dire – unsatisfactory, and along with the rental market – woefully inadequate – not fit for purpose.

A more realistic future in this article perhaps.

motherjones.com/politics/2017/10/you-will-lose-your-job-to-a-robot-and-sooner-than-you-think/

which rather highlights the fatuity of considering the future without considering the potential social collapse.

In future, Amazon can let themselves into your home for deliveries with Amazon Key.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/amazon-delivery-key-cloud-cam-smart-lock-deliveries-home-security-customer-services-a8019566.html

https://www.amazon.com/b?&node=17285120011

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2311004

https://lifehacker.com/why-you-shouldn-t-get-the-amazon-key-right-now-1819924272

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