What does COP26 mean for you?

To be pessimistic I don’t see a lot happening. To use this country as an example, which is quite a comparatively small generator of greenhouse gases, how are a lot of people going to be able to afford to replace their gas boilers with inefficient heat pumps – even with the £5000 subsidy? Also, for the same reason, how can people change their cars for electric ones? If all this magically happens, where is the extra electricity going to come from? The only answer to this is by building nuclear power stations which by now is far too late. I can’t see any green solutions being able to supply the necessary quantity.
The large polluters – especially China – will carry on using coal in great quantities so the future is very bleak.

It seems to me that the only way to stop China from polluting the world is for the world to stop buying things from China.

Absolutely John. Trouble is we don’t know things come from China until we get them in our hands and read the small print. It’s the manufacturers who have found cheap labour to cut costs and have gained willing Chinese to supply it, so that they can saturate the world and then blackmail it. We should be putting pressure on the likes of Bosch et-al to construct their merchandise here and if that costs more, then it is a price worth paying.
This is being typed on my lap top and sent via my telephone. Both, I suspect, made in China.

I agree, Vynor, and it is very annoying. It is a great shame that many good manufacturing companies are sourcing parts or even whole units from China because the low wages are very good for high volumes even allowing for the shipping costs. It is highly likely that some European or American manufacturers of power tools and mechanical equipment have made the machine tools and assembly robots ‘at home’ and installed them in China for mass production of the goods. In the process we have lost our own manufacturing capacity and it will be very difficult to reinstate it.

I was pleased to find two Makita power tools I bought recently were made in Wales.

But surprised to find of two DeWalt tools, a saw table and a thicknesser, one was made in Taiwan and one in China. At the garden centre today where I hoped to buy some plant labels, they had not had any for 12months – normally imported from China.

It is high time we mad stuff again ourselves.

Unfortunately, many new-build developments will not help home-owners to install solar panels later if they wish to because the housing layouts have not been designed to optimise the orientation of the properties for solar gain.

The changes to the tariff regime have also exercised a natural curb on the progress of solar installations. There was an inbuilt inequality in who could benefit from the early generous feed-in tariffs but the subsidy nevertheless represented a very economical way of kick-starting large-scale renewable energy production.

If the only use of solar power was for water heating in the summer months it would have been useful in environmental terms.

That is shocking! What’s another £5K on a £300,000 house?

You say that the early feed-in tariffs were generous,but i must point out that when i got my panels 10 years-ago i had to pay over £10,000 for just 4 panels which are rated at approx 1Kw of generation so the tariffs weren’t that generous.

Similar here: £6k for six panels totalling 1.4kWp (the ‘p’ means ‘peak’ – something that has never been realised). The max I have ever recorded was 1.2kW on a cold, clear and sunny May afternoon. However, by getting in before March 2012, I’m netting ~£600 a year through feed-in tariff, which means a return on investment (ROI) of 10%. The ROI on my pension annuity was 6% when I took it out – even that seems generous today.

My system in relative terms is ancient: it only produces 235Wp from a standard 1.6m by 1m panel. The same sized panel these days can produce 380W. But without the feed-in tariff, where’s the incentive? Export payments (ie. for what you put back into the grid when you’re using less than you’re generating) are derisory – and it’s all complicated by having a separate export meter. What was wrong with these old (but very accurate) electro-mechanical meters, which would go backwards when you are exporting? That way, it all gets sorted out automatically. Or is that too simple for our greedy profiteering energy companies?

It’s likely to add to mortgage payments. But the flip side is that it reduces ongoing energy payments. Also, in my opinion, the major obstacle to energy efficient new housing is the developers. There are plenty of examples of energy efficient housing that don’t break the bank.
See https://www.passivhaustrust.org.uk/what_is_passivhaus.php for some examples.

Most experts on demography believe the world population will stabilise at between nine and ten billion around 2050, because the number of people in absolute poverty is steadily reducing. As people become less poor they tend to have fewer children.
China continued the one-child policy for too long (apart from the immorality of it). The aim should be to keep population age groups roughly constant without big bulges or gaps.
Africa is endowed with abundant solar energy. It may need some help to harness that energy, but that’s what our foreign aid budget is for.

Cutting the birth rate does not work, ask China. Too many oldies not earning a living and not enough young people to support them.

Covid perhaps? I’m not suggesting for one moment this was a deliberate release. However, it could be nature’s way of redressing the age demographics.

Pandemics don’t seem to have much effect on population growth, fuelled by younger people. (Neither have wars that remove a lot of young men). Declared worldwide deaths from Covid so far are 5 million, 0.064% of the population. It is likely to be very under-reported ( the estimate is around 4x) of course but it is unlikely to do much to address rebalancing demographics, I suggest.

Under reported? Surely not! China has reported the staggering statistic of 4,636 deaths [equivalent to 3 per million].

The UK’s equivalent rate is 2,085 per million, but then we were not properly prepared with the necessary propaganda in place.

If electric car charging is generally undertaken overnight and during low demand periods during the daytime it should not impose too much of a strain on our generating capacity. It will be many years before every car is electric-powered and they won’t all require charging fully everyday. In the mean time more renewable energy will come on stream and, while supplies are not as reliable as fossil fuels are now, the balance will tilt in favour of electricity. People will have to be more cautious, though, in their use of electricity and price and taxation might exert some influence over that — except for the wealthy members of society who will still expect to be able to buy their way out of any inconvenience.

Our car has a powerful heater which warms the passenger compartment very quickly on a cold morning. It is a little luxury we have come to appreciate. I should be interested to know how good electric cars are at providing ample warmth — or shall we all have to go back to wearing overcoats, hats and gloves when we go out for a drive? Of course, we won’t be able to just go out for a drive any more, will we?

Conventional cars make use of waste heat from their inefficient engines, whereas producing heat from electricity stored in a battery will reduce its range. Warm air heaters fuelled by bioethanol may be used in future, particularly in buses.

Though my main car heater is run through the traditional engine heat system, there is no heat when running on battery alone. Thus it is possible to get in a cold car and drive around cold. To avoid the shivers, Volvo have provided a petrol burning heater which has to be selected on the touch screen. Once this is done it fires up automatically when the car is running. I believe the battery runs a pump and an ignition burner to provide the heat which stops being produced when the fuel tank drops below a quarter full. This all works quite well, though the heat produced is not tropical and is linked to the air conditioning system. The set up makes me slightly nervous. I would have preferred a fan heater and slightly less battery range. I think the full E.V. cars are heated electrically. My air conditioning is all electric.

The batteries in many hybrid cars will not power a car for fifty miles, so it would not be practical to expect the battery to provide heating too. Petrol heaters are effective and safe, as are the diesel ones used in commercial vehicles. As I mentioned above, bioethanol might be used for this purpose in future when fossil fuels are phased out.

There seems to be just 5 hours at night when electricity demand is about 25% below average. If the predicted electric car mileage is to be achieved around 25% of our current total electricity output will be required so I doubt 5h of night time charging will be sufficient. But it will not just be cars; a huge extra demand will come from domestic heating and cooking, mostly at peak times. Plus we need to replace the 40% of fossil-fuelled generation. Then, we have HGVs, trains, public transport, industry. So I see at as inevitable that substantial additional “green” generation will be required. The government estimate 2to 3 times the current capacity.

It is quite right to point out that these loads will only reach their peak in many years, and it will be a gradual transition. But it also takes many years to build the necessary extra generating capacity, and we cannot achieve the former without the latter.

I want to see is all have a decent energy future but am optimistic that we can manage that in the UK. However, we must be prepared to pay the cost.

Thanks Wavechange and Vynor. It seems like we are struggling to continue just as we are with minimal adjustment to the new reality. OK . . . bioethanol is a reasonable substitute for fossil fuel, but will there be enough to meet all similar needs? A woollen coat might be the best solution; a good one will last thirty years and is a renewable and sustainable product.

Bioethanol produces CO2 when burned so does not seem appropriate for heating vehicles?

Bioethanol is produced by growing plants, which consumes carbon dioxide, so overall there is little impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Petrol and most diesel fuel now contains biofuels. Hydrated vegetable oil is a biofuel that can be used in some diesel engines. The biggest drawback is that land is needed to produce biofuel and that land could be used to grow trees to help reduce the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

As John has pointed out we can always put on a coat when driving in cold weather.

We currently use about 300TWh of natural gas a year domestically, for cooking and heating. That is equal to our total annual electricity consumption. Even if we all install heat pumps with coefficients of performance around 2.5, allowing for a straight replacement for cooking, we will need a 50% increase in our electricity generation to accomplish the government’s aims.

“Bioethanol is produced by growing plants, which consumes carbon dioxide, so overall there is little impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide“ But we do want an impact on atmospheric CO2 – it needs to be reduced. So we should use plants to store it, use plants for food, but not burn them. Just as we should be planting trees to take in carbon, not burn them in power stations to release it again.

If the status quo was all we needed to preserve then the argument might be supported but the status quo is what is damaging the planet and needs changing.

I’ve been following Gridwatch too, Phil. Christmas is an interesting time. I do not know how much spare capacity (presumably gas) is available to keep the lights on at time of peak demand. One of the French interconnectors was brought back online at reduced capacity following the fire in Kent. It’s likely to be months before full capacity is available again and interconnectors can export electricity as well as import it.

It will be interesting to find out more about ammonia and the energy requirement and global warming potential of its manufacture.

Malcolm – What I said was factually correct and I did express my concern about using land to produce plants for fuel. As should be obvious from my comments I am certainly not in favour of retaining the status quo.

Trees are the most effective way of mopping up carbon dioxide (on land) but deforestation continues. Rural areas are often devoid of anything other than small ornamental trees and bushes. Nowadays we can have plastic grass, and when it starts to grow weeds (didn’t the shop mention that) it can be sprayed with glyphosate. 🙁

I don’t have a subscription to the FT but here is another article about this: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/15/uk-poised-to-confirm-funding-for-mini-nuclear-reactors-for-green-energy

I hope those who profit from Bitcoin mining will make their own arrangements for generating electricity.

https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-government-invests-215-million-into-small-nuclear-reactors/

I think Small Modular Reactors are an encouraging prospect, but I still feel we shall need to commit soon to constructing the Sizewell C major nuclear power station and then two more to follow on. Despite the amount of renewable energy [largely from offshore wind turbines] that is already under development the vagaries of wind power and the down-time of nuclear stations will not provide reliable continuous power for essential requirements. Tariff structures and smart metering will come into their own to manage demand: if people wish to watch TV after 10:30 pm they will have to pay more for it.

In my lifetime, there has been considerable opposition to nuclear power and now it is widely regarded as essential for our future thanks to global warming. I’m glad I don’t have a large back garden.

What is the alternative (along with tidal)? Wind is unpredictable, solar is most when we need it least (and doesn’t work at night).

John mentions paying extra if they want peak time electricity. But if sufficient electricity is not available money won’t buy it.

Hopefully small modular reactors will be quicker and cheaper to build, so could help fill gaps while large nuclear power stations and tidal storage schemes are constructed.

John wrote: “…if people wish to watch TV after 10:30 pm they will have to pay more for it.” At present the maximum demand tends to be in the early evening and smart metering should allow us to benefit from cheaper electricity later on.

Peak electricity consumption seems to be between 4 and 9pm in Winter https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Average-UK-household-electricity-demand-against-time-of-day-for-weekdays-and-weekends-in_fig9_324141791
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/295225/Seasonal_variations_in_electricity_demand.pdf

But not a huge peak according to the latter. Fairly flat from 7am.

I suspect we will be using fossil fuels for longer than we think since there seems to be no substantive plan to replace them.

To produce electricity efficiently it’s important to maintain a constant load. For domestic users, cheap night time electricity encouraged those with electric heating to have dual tariffs (Economy 7/10). Smart metering should allow us all to benefit from buying electricity when it is cheaper without additional wiring. I’m happy to put the dishwasher on after lunch or later in the evening rather than at 6 pm.

I suspect many already put their dishwashers to work after dinner. If we start charging our cars off peak the demand then will increase and so will the cost – “off- peak” will no longer exist; constant load will mean constant prices.

Prices may vary a little depending upon the source of the electricity – no solar at night, variable wind; predictable tidal and nuclear but their capital costs may make night time energy more expensive.

However, the fact remains that if we want electrical devices (including hydrogen powered produced using electricity) we will need a very substantial increase in generation. How will that be achieved?

It’s too early to predict what the load on the grid throughout a 24 hour period will be in future, but if a better balance is achieved the less need for price variation but I don’t envisage the price becoming constant unless this is engineered, for example by producing hydrogen when demand on the electricity supply is lowest. That might be a sensible approach, but only once it can be produced from renewable electricity.

You keep saying that we need more generation but that’s not much that we the public can do much about. Perhaps it would be reassuring for the government to inform us about its plans.

Pressure continues to encourage us to buy more efficient appliances for our homes and energy ratings provide an incentive to choose wisely. When I was a kid, the Hoovermatic twin-tub washed at high temperature and steamed-up kitchen windows. Nowadays most people wash at low temperature because of better detergents combined with longer washing cycles. Some people in other countries wonder why we don’t wash in cold water in the UK. Efficient heat pump tumble dryers are available for those who need a dryer. There’s not much we, as individuals, can do about electricity generation but plenty we can do about how and when we use it.

Incidentally, I think you are right about fossil fuels continuing in use beyond the current deadlines, Malcolm. I hope that we can try and minimise this use.

”It’s too early to predict what the load on the grid throughout a 24 hour period will be in future, ”. But we must, otherwise we cannot plan the generation required. And I believe we can. We should be able to predict the likely EV charging regimes, either by habit or by perhaps timed charging points to impose it. We know when gas heating is used.

We have probably reached the point when many efficiency gains have been made – home appliances, insulation, lower energy lighting, for example. While every little helps it will not offset the large increase in electricity needed. It would be interesting to hear views on how this will be provided.

Providing we do invest in sufficient generation it will not be necessary to wash in cold water.

I assume that this is already being done and the predictions will gradually be improved as we move towards existing and future deadlines. Those involved in generation take into account the TV schedules to predict short term demand. I suspect that future plans for electricity generation could be a matter of national security. I know we need more generating capacity and assume that Boris et al. know too. Phil makes an important point about the cost of gas, which affects our energy security.

Phil wrote: “Washing in cold water isn’t suitable for all fabrics and won’t kill germs.” Modern washing machines rely on the germs being washed out of fabrics in the same way as dirt, rather than killing them. If you choose a 60° cycle on a modern washing machine it’s unlikely to get near 60°C. Which? did a report on this years ago, and last time I checked it was still online. I would not use cold water washes but there is no doubt that lower temperature washing is effective as long as you avoid quick washes.

I believe the key to a comfortable sustainable energy future in the UK is to put in place a cross party, detailed and timely plan to ensure that we have the electricity capacity we need for the future. We are lucky in the UK to have a variety of energy sources to develop – tidal, both flow and storage, offshore wind, solar, nuclear ( large and small). Only government can instigate and coordinate the development of these sources and ensure the costs are fairly distributed across the population. We will have to bear the cost of repairing the damage we have caused so far, and protect our children’s futures.

Of course we can make individual choices but individually we cannot commission a power station, and it is clean power that we must have.