Clear the supermarket shelves of misleading multibuys

In theory it would seem that historical prices are irrelevant, and only today’s prices compared to those of other shops are relevant. However, in practice, we go mostly to the shop that’s closest to us, and the historical price is a rough indicator of the likely future price, which helps us figure out whether it’s worth buying a product (especially a non-perishable one) at today’s price before it goes up again. I usually buy bottles of wine that are “half price”. I know full well that these bottles are only worth the price they are actually at, even if they are labelled “half price”. And I can tell they are only worth the low price I pay because they taste very mediocre. However, I am scared to buy a “full price” bottle of wine in case it’s actually worth £6 but temporarily priced at £12 so that it can be offered as “half price” when it goes back down to its normal price next week.

I disagree that the historical price is a rough indicator of the likely future price. If a price is falling, it could fall further; or it could rise again. A previous price doesn’t suggest anything, particularly if that previous price was just a spike.

A single previous price in isolation does mean nothing however a series of previous prices does provide a trend or benchmark.

In a distress purchase such as buying petrol on a an empty tank previous prices are irrelevant : )

I also occasionally use the press for instance to tell me if their has been a poor coffee bean harvest and what it is doing to spot prices. If it makes the normal financial press it will also tell you an effect on retail prices is expected.

Coffee stores particularly well : ) My largest purchase was when the Coop closed some stores and were selling 200 gramme jars of Douwe Egbert for the same price as 100 gramme jars – I assume overstocked. So 20+ jars and a 100% saving.

clint, wine does seem to be a great example of misleading marketing – not just in supermarkets but newsagents and corner shops. Rarely do you get genuine half price bottles. The wine with £10 meal deals from a well-known store is genuine value. However, we buy most of our wine from a “society” (see Which Local) where their 12 bottle cases for less than £6 a bottle offer very pleasant drinking. Hope this doesn’t break any guidelines. Please drink responsibly.

I never buy wine in British shops anyway, because of the ridiculous alcohol duty in this country which adds £2.40 to a bottle of wine. Living only two hours from Calais by car, I buy wine and beer in France and Belgium where I don’t have to pay this unreasonable tax.

A well known “society” has an outlet near Calais where you can not only benefit from the lower prices, but from the consistent quality of their wines. Not advertising – just based on satisfaction in a seller (or should that be cellar?) you can trust – and from many cynical comments in other conversations this is something to nurture. Bottoms up! (is that still PC?).

I used to use one such society and agree their selection of wines was always very good. However, it’s no longer convenient because there’s noone at home to take deliveries and no alternative place to leave a case. On the earlier subject of historical prices, in reply to NFH, you can actually see the relevance of historical prices by looking at the graphs at mysupermarket.co.uk. Choose any product at any supermarket, and most likely you will see a series of dips (lasting about two weeks every month) but these usually go back to the exact same “normal” price, which remains constant for about a year before going up by an inflationary amount. So, from this graph, I would deduce that historical prices are indeed a rough indicator of likely future prices.